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MAHAMA CLINGS TO MODEST 33%: Sly clutches Greater Accra/Volta/Eastern; Bagbin, North/BA; Kwesi B Central/WR; J. Alabi, strongest running mate

Politics

Unassailable information trickling down to the Daily Statesman indicates that, while there is a resounding urge to on the part of majority of rank and file National Democratic Congress membership for a new face to lead the party into the crucial 2020 presidential elections, John Dramani still commands some strong 33% of the support due the NDC from delegates in the party.

Unassailable information trickling down to the Daily Statesman indicates that, while there is a resounding urge to on the part of majority of rank and file National Democratic Congress membership for a new face to lead the party into the crucial 2020 presidential elections, John Dramani still commands some strong 33% of the support due the NDC from delegates in the party.

 

Discreet information available to us also indicates that the dark horse in the race, Joshua Alabi, may be the brightest star in the running mate permutations with all contenders, except Sylvester Mensah, eying the former Northern Regional Minister and Vice Chancellor of the University of Professional Studies, Legon.

Mahama’s strength is in the Volta, Western, Central and Greater Accra, almost sharing turf with Sly Mensah, his former Campaign Coordinator for Greater Accra. Additionally, he commands a huge chunk of almost 80% of appointees who has influence in the party and who are likely to bring others on board, including CEOs of state institutions, Ambassadors, MPs, Ministers, DCEs and MCEs etc.

It is also emerging that former National Health Insurance Authority capo Sylvester Mensah may be a terrific contender for flag bearer slot, having effectively tackled Greater Accra, Eastern and Volta Regions, commanding several thousands of delegates in 93 odd constituencies.

Interestingly, the Ashanti Region, according to insiders, appears divided among Alban Bagbin, Sly Mensah and Kwesi Botchwey, with Spio Garbrah and John Mahama trailing.

Alban Bagbin, sill widely tipped to win if the NDC deftly manages the delegates’ congress, has Brong Ahafo and the three Northern Regions, while Dr. Spio Garbrah’s campaign, NDC cadres insist,  is engineered more at striking alliances than individual steam intended at going for gold.

Late starter Kwesi Botchwey, according to insiders, is poaching a modest slice from 49 constituencies being the Central and Western, with thin hopes that he might garner some Greater Accra votes, particularly in urban Accra/Tema.  

The permutations are compelling worried opponents to engineer the way forward in the light of the inevitable role cash will play in the oncoming national delegates’ congress which is scheduled for the last quarter of 2018.

As was abundant in the last NDC branch elections held nationwide, John Mahama’s men lost, in most cases, landslide. Daily Statesman analysis on the figures and open loyalty calculations, however, indicate that John Mahama is still 33% in contention, needing some marginal alliances to sneak through to pick the flag bearer slot.

According to Daily Statesman sources in the NDC, another major propaganda enabling the John Mahama campaign is that “it is better for John Mahama to go, even if he would be disgraced, because Ghanaians tend to change Presidents after two terms.” The snag therefore is that allowing anybody else to go, apart from John Mahama, is a waste of precious bullets, particularly, since all the other contenders, apart from Sly Mensah, are aging. Mahama, Daily Statesman learned, can always manage the Mahama card “at family level,” even though Sly is neck deep in seeing the back of John Mahama, according to cadres from indigenous Accra.

That propaganda, for a party that believes in propaganda, is apart from the other being spun about Mahama being the most experienced flag bearer among the six-odd contestants the only aspirant currently at par with Nana Akufo Addo over scorecards that had Mahama winning 2012 and Nana Addo winning 2016, compelling a decider in 2020.